ode to trends...
The housing market has hit the wall.
After years of unrelenting strength, house prices are dropping. Not by much, at this stage, but the heat in the Sydney market in particular, has suddenly turned cold.
The fascinating and scary thing is that the price falls are increasingly widespread.
The housing market has peaked with prices no longer growing. At the same time, auction clearance rates are lower and a solid pipeline of new supply – particularly apartments – will soon flood the market in a number of cities and regions.
The big question for business and individuals - how severe will the downturn be and what does it mean for the economy?
As we begin to wrap up another year, we asked one of Australia's premier and favourite economists Stephen Koukoulas for his fascinating take on 'What's HOT in the economy?'
More than qualified to comment as former Senior Economic Advisor to Prime Minister Gillard, and with over 25 years as a Chief Economist, 2016 looks set to bring some positives with consumer spending and tourism. Other areas of the economy have a more tumultuous outlook...
In this extract from his new book, Myth Busting Economics, Stephen Koukoulas discusses housing affordability and the difficulty of buying your first home or flat.
A pain point especially for young Australians, Stephen shares how buying a live-in house with a 10 year timeframe in mind is a smart investment, provides security and sets you up for life.
What will 2015 bring?
It is time to think about your business, your personal financial plans and how trends in the economy might impact you in 2015. Without understanding the intricacies of the economy, including what sectors will be strong, where interest rates might be going, what will happen to the Australian dollar or housing or consumer spending, there is a risk that an opportunity will be missed.
As 2014 draws to a close, it is time to think about your business, your personal financial plans and how trends in the economy might impact you in 2015.
Without understanding the intricacies of the economy, including what sectors will be strong, where interest rates might be going, what will happen to the Australian dollar or housing or consumer spending, there is a risk that an opportunity will be missed.
The Australian economy is creating jobs again.
The big questions are where? How many? And will it last?
Before we get to those sorts of specifics, it should go without saying, but the best thing to generate jobs and lower the unemployment rate is a growing economy.
Budget, Budget, Budget. That is the word occupying the minds of economist, CEOs, parents, working mums and students alike. But as the results from the commission audit are released, Stephen Koukoulas gives us an insight into just how the government will come up with these figures and his take on what this means for the average Australian.
In light of the humbug of the 'budget never returning to surplus unless we cut the tripe out of spending', I though it interesting to revisit the sensitivity of budget forecasting to small changes to the economic parameters.
House prices are moving into very dangerous territory.
They are rising so fast and are moving to a point where there is a very real risk of a situation that spills over to poor borrowing decisions, relaxed lending standards and financial market malaise that would threaten to end Australia’s multi-decade economic expansion.
Stephen Koukoulas is one of Australia’s most respected economists. His background covers the spectrum of economic insight - from his role as Chief Economist of Citibank to Senior Economic Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister.
In his latest article Stephen argues against the widely held belief that first homebuyers are being priced out of the market, showing us (and Bridie at The Guardian) that with a little frugality and some more realistic expectations, your first home isn’t just a dream.
in 2013, retail, housing and finance should do well, sparked by lower interest rates and still low unemployment. Construction should start to turn higher, but manufacturing and tourism may well remain soft. The strong Australian dollar will not help. Mining will remain hostage to the world economy and that is looking problematic with China slowing, Europe in recession and the US still fragile. Don't bank on the boom in mining continuing.
The new financial year kicks off on 1 July 2012 and having watched the economy and financial markets for more than two decades, these calendar benchmarks are a good time to take stock, look ahead and think about the issues that are likely to impact on businesses and personal finances.
Before doing that, there is no doubt that in the last month or two, there has been some great economic news in Australia.