Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas is one of Australia’s leading economic visionaries, past Chief Economist of Citibank and Senior Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister.
My speaker bio...
Few economists have both the global and local experience of Stephen Koukoulas. He is an economic thought leader in his role with his business, Market Economics.
Stephen is often driving the debate on housing, consumer spending, investment strategies, interest rates and budget policy. He does this by drawing on his unique background including his experience heading global research for TD in London, his role as Chief Economist of Citibank and Former Senior Economic Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister.
When it comes to the economy, Stephen continues to cover the big issues. He does so independently, without the constraints of many of the bank economists who are limited by what they can say. Stephen’s views are presented without fear or favour.
Stephen is the go-to economist for many businesses, investors, fund managers and the media. He is a regular contributor to Yahoo Finance and appears on television including the ABC, The Project and Sky and is regularly called upon to contribute to radio interviews across the country.
As a keynote speaker and panellist Stephen is asked to discuss the economy with audiences as diverse as the corporate world to school students - an affirmation of his ability to turn complex economic analysis into terms mere mortals can understand.
Independent. Impartial. Entertaining
Stephen was very well received. Many found it very helpful to hear Stephen explain a difficult topic in a way they could understand .
Hunter Douglas Australia
The feedback from the participants has been fantastic. You really make a serious subject interesting and engaging!
HR, Wesfarmers Insurance
One of Australia's most influential economists.
The Australian Financial Review
Not only is Stephen a truly remarkable speaker to work with, he captivates a room with his presence, especially on a topic that can be quite dry, he has the audience wanting more. The attendees loved him!
Events Executive – UDIA QLD
Stephen is a great presenter who stayed politically neutral and focused on the audience. He delivered a presentation on the current state of the economy making it consumable. He was fine with curly questions and had great audience engagement. Stephen was so easy to work with. We are looking to engage him again next year.
Forhham Business Advisors
My speaking topics...
The Housing Market
In this engaging keynote, Stephen unpacks the complex dynamics of the Australian housing market, offering deep insights into its less obvious intricacies and the surprising factors that drive changes in house prices, rents, and overall affordability.
As the national debate on housing intensifies, with the government aiming to build 1.2 million new dwellings within the next five years and opposition proposals stirring controversy, Stephen provides a critical analysis of policy impacts, market trends, and the real challenges of increasing dwelling construction amidst rising costs and planning hurdles.
Whether you're a first-time homebuyer pondering the perfect timing to enter the market or an investor gauging the future of rents and property values, this presentation delivers valuable perspectives backed by data and decades of expertise.
Audience Takeaways:
- Regional Price Variations: Explore detailed data on how supply and demand vary across different cities and regions, influencing house prices uniquely in each area.
- Interest Rate Myths Debunked: Understand why interest rates might not have the long-term effect on house prices that many assume, with insights into the broader economic factors at play.
- Household Debt Concerns: Gauge the sustainability of current debt levels among Australian homeowners and the potential for future borrowing in a high-stress financial environment.
- Investment Insights: Learn about the current and future states of rental markets and why, despite market fluctuations, it remains an opportune time to buy a house for personal use.
The Consumer and Retail Spending
In this dynamic and informative keynote, Stephen delves into the pivotal role of consumer and retail spending, which constitutes over half of Australia's GDP. Understanding the subtleties of consumer behaviour is crucial for businesses to grasp broader economic trends and stay ahead in the market.
Stephen explores the reasons behind the recent weakening in consumer spending since 2023, dissecting the influence of wages, taxes, unemployment, inflation, and the cost of living. He also highlights the often-underestimated impact of household wealth on spending patterns, particularly how fluctuations in house prices and stock market levels affect various consumer sectors.
This session offers a crucial analysis for businesses to navigate the complexities of the market and anticipate changes.
Audience Takeaways:
- Insights into Retail Dynamics: Learn why retail spending is slowing and how factors like consumer sentiment, cost of living, and job insecurity are playing a role.
- Forecasting Consumer Spending: Gain insights into the potential duration of weak retail spending and the indicators to watch.
- Strategies for Retail Turnaround: Discover what catalysts could lead to a revival in consumer spending and how businesses can position themselves for an upturn.
- Adaptive Strategies for Retailers: Understand how retailers can effectively respond to an unpredictable spending environment in the coming year, ensuring resilience and adaptability in their business models.
The Labour Market
In this insightful and timely keynote, Stephen explores the critical dynamics of the labour market that affect everyone from job seekers and employees seeking promotions to businesses focusing on recruitment and retention strategies. He will dissect the interconnectedness of labor demand, wage trends, inflation, and the subsequent responses from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
With the RBA aiming for 'full employment,' Stephen clarifies what this objective truly entails, especially in a context where unemployment rates fluctuate and wage growth moderates. He also delves into the impacts of an aging population remaining employed beyond traditional retirement ages, and what these shifts mean for the broader economy and labour market dynamics.
Audience Takeaways:
- Understanding Unemployment Metrics: Learn about the potential lows of unemployment rates and the onset of labour shortages, especially in skilled sectors influenced by immigration.
- Wage Dynamics and Inflation: Gain insights into how wage adjustments drive inflation and influence central banking policies, particularly the decisions of the RBA.
- Implications of Full Employment: Explore what the RBA's goal of full employment means in practical terms and its feasibility amidst changing economic conditions.
- Aging Workforce Impact: Understand the economic and labour market implications of an aging population that continues to work, whether full-time or part-time, past traditional retirement ages.
Interest Rates Insights
Unpacking the RBA's Moves and Future Projections
Stephen stands at the forefront of the debate on interest rates in Australia, distinguishing himself as a critical voice against the Reserve Bank's aggressive interest rate policies recently. In this commanding keynote, Stephen will share his unique insights and predictions for the future of interest rates in 2024 and beyond, drawing on his extensive experience in the Treasury, as a senior advisor to Prime Minister Gillard, and his tenure with global investment banks. His deep understanding of the inner workings of policymakers, including the RBA, allows him to offer a perspective missed by many. Attendees will gain a deeper understanding of the intricacies of interest rate decisions and the macroeconomic factors influencing these pivotal monetary policies.
Audience Takeaways:
- Current Interest Rate Trends: Understand the rationale behind the RBA's recent aggressive rate hikes and the economic indicators that influenced these decisions.
- Forecasting Interest Rates: Learn about Stephen’s predictions for interest rates in 2024, equipped with his insights into upcoming economic trends and policy shifts.
- Behind the Scenes: Gain insights from Stephen’s experiences with high-level economic policymaking and how these experiences inform his understanding of rate-setting processes.
- Practical Implications for Businesses and Individuals: Discover how changes in interest rates could impact both personal finances and the broader business landscape, helping attendees make more informed financial decisions.
The big picture economic update
Navigating the Current and Future Landscape
In this essential keynote, Stephen provides a comprehensive economic update crucial for every business and investor looking ahead over the next 6, 12, and 24 months. With his ability to distill complex economic data into clear, actionable insights, Stephen will cover a broad spectrum of economic indicators, from consumer demand and retail spending to business conditions and the impacts of national budgeting.
He will also delve into the specificities of the Australian housing market's state-by-state variations, the directions of unemployment, wages, and inflation, and the overarching influences of the global economy on Australia's financial health.
This presentation is designed to equip attendees with a nuanced understanding of the current economic climate and strategic foresight for the future.
Audience Takeaways:
- Consumer and Retail Dynamics: Gain insights into what is currently driving consumer demand and the implications for retail spending and construction sectors.
- Housing Market Trends: Learn about the diverse trends in house prices across different states and regions, understanding that Australia’s housing market varies significantly by location.
- Business Economic Impact: Explore how recent budgetary decisions are affecting business operations, profitability, and the overall cost of doing business.
- Macro Economic Indicators: Receive an analysis of key economic indicators such as unemployment, wage growth, and inflation, and understand their potential impact on interest rates and the broader economic environment.
See me...
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Watch me...
Beyond Interest Rates: What’s Shaping Australia’s Construction Outlook
Interest rates are only part of the story. Economist Stephen Koukoulas explores the structural forces, policy settings, and market dynamics shaping Australia’s construction and housing outlook, and what they mean for the industry right now. Read more +
Stephen Koukoulas - 60 Minutes: Why the Trump Trade Turmoil Spells Danger for Australia’s Economy
Economist and keynote speaker Stephen Koukoulas warned on 60 Minutes that Trump’s trade war could trigger a global recession, with Australia at serious risk. As trade with China slows and tensions with the US grow, Koukoulas urges strategic caution. His keynotes offer clear, fearless insights to help businesses navigate economic uncertainty with confidence and prepare for what’s next. Read more +
Prepare Your Organisation for the 2025 Australian Federal Budget with Keynote Speaker Stephen Koukoulas
With inflation concerns, interest rate pressures, and tax cuts influencing the fiscal landscape, organizations across Australia need expert insights to make informed decisions. Economist Stephen Koukoulas provides his expert insights on economic trends, policy decisions, and market impacts. Read more +
Economic Sustainability
Few economists have both the global and local experience of Stephen Koukoulas — leading Australian economist & keynote speaker. He is an economic thought leader in his role with his business, Market Economics. Stephen is often driving the debate on housing, consumer spending, investment strategies, interest rates and budget policy. This month we got his thoughts on economic sustainability. Read more +
What are the impacts of the Housing Cycle?
Housing is a dominant issue for the Australian economy, and a dominant issue for most of us individuals - we love talking about house prices. Stephen Koukoulas, leading Australian economist and keynote speaker certainly knows about the housing cycle and provides insights on its impact on the Australian economy, your business, and your investments Read more +
Economic Security for Women
Stephen Koukoulas — leading Australian economist and keynote speaker dives into the heart of policy reforms and their application in closing pay gaps between men and women. He explores key economic issues such as superannuation, childcare, education and training. There is a need for economic policies that increase pay rates and balance pay rates for roles filed by both men and women. Stephen Koukoulas also calls for the increase in superannuation, and the provision of childcare support. Read more +
The Farm Sector and Economic Recovery
Few economists have both the global and local experience of Stephen Koukoulas. He is an economic thought leader in his role with his business, Market Economics - and in this video he notes that the farm sector has been one of the hidden stars of the economic recovery from the 2020 COVID recession. It's a good news story. Read more +
House Prices: It’s all about Supply and Demand
The housing sector has, so far, been remarkably resilient in the wake of the recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. This appears to be linked to the mortgage repayment holidays, low-interest rates and JobKeeper. Unless the economy can snap-back quickly in 2021, a resumption of the house price weakness could be just around the corner. What will this mean for you, your business and investment strategy? Read more +
Relaxed Lending and Superannuation in the Covid Recession
COVID-19 has sparked massive changes in banking and finance, not least because of the deep recession impacting the economy. Among the changes that have been witnessed in finance, the so-called responsible lending laws have been relaxed to make it easier for a borrower to get a loan. In addition, around $35 billion has been withdrawn from superannuation accounts as the government has encouraged people to pull out cash from their superannuation savings to cover the costs of being unemployed or working fewer hours during the COVID-19 recession. Read more +
The Sustainability of Superannuation
Anyone can have a ‘good time’ if they borrow and spend like the proverbial drunken sailor, but as we all know, such action is not sustainable. It cannot go on forever given that one day the money will run out and the debt will have to be repaid. Our expert economist and social commentator Stephen Koukoulas explores the question of how sustainable is our super with an aging population. Read more +
The housing cycle
Things are brewing in the housing market: Having been hit hard under the weight of a property glut, record low wages growth, tighter credit from the banks and the Reserve Bank refusing to cut interest rates despite troubling economic conditions, house prices around the bulk of Australia fell sharply from around the middle of 2017 through to the middle of 2019. Read more +
How the election can impact the economy
A Labor win in the election will mean big changes in a number of key policy areas – negative gearing rules will change as will refunds of franking credits and capital gains tax concessions. This will have important implications for investors, financial planners and the economy. Investment in new dwellings is likely to get as boost, as will shares in companies not paying the previously appealing 100% fully franked dividends. Read more +
The RBA and the Election
The election looms large and which ever side wins, they will be confronted with an economy growing below trend, low inflation and a global backdrop where conditions are weakening. Will the promises being made now need to be refined? Read more +
Australia's Housing Market Wall
The housing market has hit the wall. After years of unrelenting strength, house prices are dropping. Not by much, at this stage, but the heat in the Sydney market in particular, has suddenly turned cold. The fascinating and scary thing is that the price falls are increasingly widespread. Read more +
The Australian economy remains in good shape.
Calls of housing crashes, banking busts and general gloom will be wrong again. Read more +
The housing downturn – what’s it mean for you and the economy?
The housing market has peaked with prices no longer growing. At the same time, auction clearance rates are lower and a solid pipeline of new supply – particularly apartments – will soon flood the market in a number of cities and regions. The big question for business and individuals - how severe will the downturn be and what does it mean for the economy? Read more +
What's Ahead for Australia
We know the good times are over – the only questions are how long and how deep the weakness will be? Stephen Koukoulas provides an economic projection for the future. Read more +
What's Hot in The Economy?
As we begin to wrap up another year, we asked one of Australia's premier and favourite economists Stephen Koukoulas for his fascinating take on 'What's HOT in the economy?' More than qualified to comment as former Senior Economic Advisor to Prime Minister Gillard, and with over 25 years as a Chief Economist, 2016 looks set to bring some positives with consumer spending and tourism. Other areas of the economy have a more tumultuous outlook... Read more +
Grow Your Wealth
In this extract from his new book, Myth Busting Economics, Stephen Koukoulas discusses housing affordability and the difficulty of buying your first home or flat. A pain point especially for young Australians, Stephen shares how buying a live-in house with a 10 year timeframe in mind is a smart investment, provides security and sets you up for life. Read more +
Your Economy In 2015
What will 2015 bring? It is time to think about your business, your personal financial plans and how trends in the economy might impact you in 2015. Without understanding the intricacies of the economy, including what sectors will be strong, where interest rates might be going, what will happen to the Australian dollar or housing or consumer spending, there is a risk that an opportunity will be missed. Read more +
What's To Come In 2015?
As 2014 draws to a close, it is time to think about your business, your personal financial plans and how trends in the economy might impact you in 2015. Without understanding the intricacies of the economy, including what sectors will be strong, where interest rates might be going, what will happen to the Australian dollar or housing or consumer spending, there is a risk that an opportunity will be missed. Read more +
The Job Market Is On The Up!
The Australian economy is creating jobs again. The big questions are where? How many? And will it last? Before we get to those sorts of specifics, it should go without saying, but the best thing to generate jobs and lower the unemployment rate is a growing economy. Read more +
What The Budget Means For You
Budget, Budget, Budget. That is the word occupying the minds of economist, CEOs, parents, working mums and students alike. But as the results from the commission audit are released, Stephen Koukoulas gives us an insight into just how the government will come up with these figures and his take on what this means for the average Australian. In light of the humbug of the 'budget never returning to surplus unless we cut the tripe out of spending', I though it interesting to revisit the sensitivity of budget forecasting to small changes to the economic parameters. Read more +
Is Now The Time To Buy?
House prices are moving into very dangerous territory. They are rising so fast and are moving to a point where there is a very real risk of a situation that spills over to poor borrowing decisions, relaxed lending standards and financial market malaise that would threaten to end Australia’s multi-decade economic expansion. Read more +
Australia By Numbers
There is a very long held assumption that economics is a bunch of very serious people talking about very serious, and dare I say boring, things. But I’m here to prove that just isn’t true! Read more +
Solid Growth for the Finance Sector
Australia’s finance sector is on track for several more years of solid growth... Read more +
You Can Buy Your First Home!
Stephen Koukoulas is one of Australia’s most respected economists. His background covers the spectrum of economic insight - from his role as Chief Economist of Citibank to Senior Economic Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister. In his latest article Stephen argues against the widely held belief that first homebuyers are being priced out of the market, showing us (and Bridie at The Guardian) that with a little frugality and some more realistic expectations, your first home isn’t just a dream. Read more +
Your Money in 2014
As is normal at this time if the year, economists are pretty much compelled to outline their main themes for the economy and markets in the year ahead. I am not different so here we go. Read more +
What's in store for tourism in 2014?
The tourism industry has recently gone through tough times but there are some encouraging signs emerging that 2014 will be a better one for the industry. Read more +
Our world in charts
An old proverb says: “a picture paints a thousand words” and in this book, the pictures are the charts. Our World in Charts has over 150 charts that depict a range of economic, market and social issues. There is a lot of information in each chart and each tells a story which authors Alan Kohler and Stephen Koukoulas explain.
Charts give context. An annual budget deficit of $30 billion sounds a lot, but relative to the size of the economy in 2017 it’s about the average of the last 40 years. A chart can show this. Ask a good economist, “how are you today?” and they should answer, “relative to what?” Charts show how the economy or markets are today relative to the past.
