-There is no confidence at all in projected unemployment rate

April 14th 2020

Economist Stephen Koukoulas says “there is no confidence at all” in any projections about the unemployment rate amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

Treasury has announced that the unemployment rate is predicted to hit 10 per cent in a report set to be released on Thursday. Mr Koukoulas told Sky News the report “probably won’t capture those queues that we saw around Centrelink offices a few weeks ago” as restrictions were only strengthened toward the end of March. He said “the current guessing game for economists, including the treasury, is how high will unemployment be before we can be confident that there is a peak”. “We need to see the global economy back on its feet and the virus beat for us to get the benefit of those really important parts of our economy. “Easing the restrictions when we are confident that the health officials are saying that it is ok to do so would really be an important part of that snapback, and if it's not a snapback, well then a return to some form of reasonable economic growth.”

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Stephen Koukoulas is one of Australia’s leading economic visionaries, past Chief Economist of Citibank and Senior Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister.

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